University of St. Thomas Center for Applied Mathematics
APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Speaker: Paul Alper
Affiliation: University of St. Thomas
Presentation Date: November 6, 2009
Abstract:
In the 1970s, E.T. Jaynes wrote a scathing critique of frequentist (classical, objectivist) methods. He used six examples to show the superiority of the Bayesian (subjectivist) methodology. The first example is simple enough for beginning students of statistics to comprehend:
“Two manufacturers, A and B are suppliers for a certain component, and we want to choose the one which affords the longer mean life. Manufacturer A supplies 9 units for test, which turn out to have a (mean +- standard deviation) lifetime of (42 +- 7.48) hours. B supplies 4 units, which yield (50 +-6.48) hours.”
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